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Jeff Green Partners

A LEADER IN RETAIL REAL ESTATE FEASIBILITY

jgreen@jeffgreenpartners.com

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Jeff Green

For retailers, Thanksgiving sales here to stay

Lauren Abdel-Razzaq / The Detroit News – For the first time, most major retailers are preparing to offer holiday sales on Thanksgiving, extending the deals typically expected on Black Friday in hopes of whipping up excitement for the shopping period.

“We moan and groan and crab about it, but we still … do it,” said Bonnie Knutson, a professor at the School of Hospitality Business at Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business. “If that deal is out there and (you’re) full of turkey and don’t want to watch another football game, that’s where you’ll be.”

Forecast fuzzy as Santa’s beard ECONOMY: Will it be retail’s turnaround year — or are shoppers still holding back?

Justine Griffin / Herald Tribune – We’ve heard it all before.

Pent-up demand. Cautious optimism. Earlier store openings. Online versus brick-and-mortar.

Predictions for retail this holiday season remain fuzzy.

Some, like the National Retail Federation, a trade group representing businesses around the nation, are optimistic that this could be the turnaround year for retail, which has suffered in the wake of the recession and struggled to keep up with the growing scope of online commerce.

Others believe consumer confidence isn’t quite there yet, even with falling unemployment rates and ever-cheaper gas. They see Americans as still shopping for value only.

The proof, as they say, will be in the proverbial pudding.

“Overall, the holiday season will probably be pretty steady,” said Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail analyst who predicts the season’s sales will rise by less than 3 to 5 percent compared with 2013. “It all depends on how the Black Friday weekend goes. If it doesn’t go well, retailers will have to discount merchandise quickly and through Christmas, which isn’t good for anyone.”

The Florida Retail Federation, which historically has produced optimistic forecasts for the Sunshine State, is predicting a 5 percent jump in sales this holiday season. An improving stock market, rising job creation and a steady housing market suggest a year of positive growth, said the group’s CEO, Rick McAllister.

November and December are where chain stores make a large portion of their sales for the year. Black Friday gets its name for the time of the year — once it was basically a single shopping day right after Thanskgiving — when stores turn a profit, the ink in their ledgers shifting from red to black.

But things have changed drastically in retail and continue to evolve, especially for Black Friday.

While growth has been slow but steady for retailers over the past few years, consumers just aren’t buying the way they used to, said Green, the Phoenix analyst.

“Black Friday isn’t about shopping on the day after Thanksgiving anymore,” he said. “It’s spread out all weekend. People aren’t cross-shopping, either. They’re coming in for the doorbuster deal and they’re leaving.

“Value is still very important.”

Braving the crowds

There are strong indications that most Americans won’t shop on Black Friday this year.

A study by Bankrate.com, a Palm Beach-based consumer financial firm, found only 28 percent of shoppers plan to make purchases inside a physical store on Black Friday.

That figure only rises to 40 percent when adding in those who will shop online that day.

“Consumers are well aware that deep discounts will be offered throughout the holiday shopping season,” Bankrate.com analyst Jeanine Skowronski said. “They don’t necessarily need to brave the Black Friday crowds to score them.”

The study also had a few surprises: Despite their tech-savvy reputation, shoppers in the 18-29 age group are 13 percentage points more likely to shop in stores on the day after Thanksgiving.

Black Friday 2014: West Michigan retailers announce Thanksgiving hours

Andrew Kuhn / MLive – GRAND RAPIDS, MI — Over the past two years, Black Friday has gained a solid six-hour foothold into Thanksgiving. This year, the line has moved from prime time to supper time. Most big box retailers and department stores, from Target to Kohl’s, will open at 6 p.m. on the holiday. […]

Why Amazon keeps cutting prices for consumer goods

Jennifer Booton / MarketWatch – Amazon.com Inc. is gradually lowering prices across several major consumer goods categories in an effort to bolster its retail business and better compete with offline retailers, a recent analysis of price trends conducted by Bernstein Research has revealed.

As more people buy consumer health, personal care, pet care and baby products from diapers to shampoo online, Amazon AMZN, +0.58% is “cutting prices to achieve scale,” Bernstein analysts said.

This could challenge industry margins for offline retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores WMT, +0.26% , Walgreen Co. WAG, +2.27% and Target Corp. TGT, +0.57% , and require them to adapt to a more “dynamic and deflationary online pricing environment,” they said.

The La La Land store offers as much entertainment as merchandise.

Beth Karlin / Shopping Centers Today – Anyone wanting to slip into the mellowed bliss of la-la land should probably avoid the La La Land store, on Hollywood Boulevard and Orange Street, in Los Angeles, its name notwithstanding. On the other hand, if one seeks immersion into the sensory-overload excitement of multimedia interactivity, then this new retail concept could be the very first place to go.

When brothers Gill and Ofer Zahavi first envisioned this video-centric Hollywood -experience, which opened in June, they were following this formula: Entertainment plus Hollywood flash equals retail traffic. Their calculations could hardly have been better: Gill Zahavi says he estimates that upwards of 10,000 awed visitors cross the threshold of this all-things Hollywood memorabilia store daily. “It’s exceeding our expectations,” he said.

Marilyn Monroe Spa aims to consolidate the beauty business.

Beth Karlin / Shopping Centers Today – The mom-and-pop nail salons and spas that populate many malls and retail streets will be facing stiff competition from Marilyn Monroe Spa, which is planning on opening thousands of units around the world over the next 20 years. Marilyn Monroe can offer landlords a single point of contact for what has typically been a scattered business.

“This is a major game changer for developers, landlords and managers,” said John Crossman, president of shopping center brokerage Crossman & Co. “Those who have been frustrated by dealing with different nail salon owners at every mall will be able to deal with one company for many of its malls.”