As the initial results came in for this year’s back-to-school retail spending forecasts, the numbers were about where I thought they might be: down a couple of percentage points. It’s a modest dip, and certainly nothing to be alarmed about given the degree to which back-to-school spending has spiked over the last decade (average back-to-school spending has increased 42 percent over the last 10 year period). So why is it that these numbers are raising some eyebrows among industry analysts and observers?