“It is not uncommon for Nordstrom to have a full-line and Rack store in the same region,” said Jeff Green, who heads a Phoenix-based retail consulting company. “At one time you would never see that, but in recent years Nordstrom has focused more on broadening the customer experience and they know they can reach more shoppers with both an outlet and traditional store nearby.”
“Westfield will need to shift its mall from being a regional center to a community center in order to survive,” said Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based retail consultant who has done work in Southwest Florida. “They can’t operate how they once did.”
“Nordstrom sees themselves as a destination, and having both stores is a way to appeal to customers in a broader way,” Green said. “Value transcends demographics, and even stores like Nordstrom target those shoppers now.”
Green adds that the comparatively small size of the proposed supercenter — 98,000 square feet — speaks volumes.
“It really means to me that there are probably not a lot of other places they can go,” Green said. “It’s right where they want to go.”
“Price matching helps build loyalty for a brand, and it is becoming a necessary evil,” said Jeff Green, a retail analyst with Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners.
“If one competitor offers it, it leaves the others no choice, and as we saw, 2012 was all about getting a customer at any cost.”
While mobile shopping remains a small slice of total sales, “it‘s something to pay a lot of attention to because it‘s growing so strong, so quickly,” retail expert Jeff Green of Jeff Green Partners LLC in Phoenix said Wednesday.
“Consumer confidence got dragged down in mid-November, and again in December, and will likely stay down for the next couple of months,” Green added.
Green says there are no rules; prices can vary anytime, anywhere.
He says to get the best deals, price comparison is key. Look up the differences online, in stores or with the help of smartphone apps.
“Sales have been disappointing and profits are going to be hurt, despite the deep discounting we’ve seen going on the last week or so,” said Jeff Green, a retail analyst with Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners. “It just wasn’t enough to make up for those quiet weeks after Black Friday.”
Policy terms that require a receipt or enforce a short return window help stores limit losses from products that were actually bought elsewhere, and keeps them from having to pay out a full-price return if the item was bought on sale, Green says.
“There won’t be a lot left over,” (Green) said. “But prices on what’s left will be good because they (retailers) want to get rid of it by the first of the year.”
Although the small segment of luxury shoppers did not appear to be spending quite as they had in 2007 and before, sales of upscale items have bounced back remarkably, said Jeff Green, a retail analyst with Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners.
“Retailers are very focused on inventory, especially after the years like 2009 and 2010. The last thing they want is to be stuck with a lot of merchandise at the end of the year and have to dump it at next-to-nothing prices,” said Jeff Green, a retail analyst with Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw deeper discounts leading up to Christmas comparable to what we saw around Black Friday.”
“We’ve seen stores opening on Thanksgiving, very early on Black Friday, but opening nonstop before Christmas is pretty surprising,” said Jeff Green, a retail consultant at Jeff Green Partners.
“It started out very strong with Black Friday weekend, but it didn‘t seem to hold. It quieted down quite a bit,” retail expert Jeff Green said on Wednesday. Activity has picked up in the last week, he understands.
“With the Sarasota-Bradenton market becoming that much more competitive with the new Taubman project, DeSoto Square may have no other option but to become more of a hybrid mall and big box center,” said Jeff Green, a retail analyst with Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners.
Discounts will likely draw shoppers, but promotions, like Kohl’s plan to pick up one shopper’s tab every day until Christmas Eve, are a “little obscure for most people,” Green said.
“If you’re a power shopper you’ll care, but the general public probably won’t,” he said.
“Consumers are much more savvy about looking for the cheaper price, and retailers have caught on,” Green said. “I’ve heard that brick-and-mortar store managers have been given much more leeway with price matching this year.”
“Certainly there are a handful [of stores] in each major market they can still do, but I don’t see that as a major growth push,” he says. “They need to make sure that they definitely do a better job of assessing cannibalization than they did when they were opening stores several years ago.”
“People came in for the doorbusters and left without buying much of anything else,” said Jeff Green, a retail consultant in Phoenix. “Those generate sales but not profits. Those doorbusters are what sold in those (Thanksgiving) hours, and retailers seemed to have spent a lot in time, effort and money on them.”
“Because the technology is increasing, it’s not going to be the state-of-the-art items we see as doorbusters,” said Green.
“The longer they extend Black Friday into Thanksgiving and then forward into the weekend, the less we’ll see of the maddening Black Friday crowds,” said Green, the Phoenix-based retail consultant. “And I think that’s good for the consumer. The definition has changed, and you’re seeing steady traffic through the weekend instead of just one mad rush.”
Green dates Black Friday’s peak as a single-day event in the mid-1990s. It was never the biggest shopping day of the year, though, until 2003; that honor typically went to the Saturday before Christmas.
Green cautioned that Black Friday and this weekend’s deals might exhaust many of the deep discounts for merchants due to low inventories.
“I’ve been telling consumers to buy now,” he said. “There are five weekends in his holiday season, and they may see some out-of-stock items closer to the end of the holiday season.”
“It’s definitely worth going out today,” said Jeff Green. “You should shop early this year because I think we are going to see some out-of-stocks. There are five weekends between Thanksgiving and Christmas and that’s pretty unique. Typically there are four, and everyone is controlling their inventory, so toward Christmas you’re going to see some out-of-stocks.”
“I actually think JCPenney is doing a good job with Black Friday,” said Jeff Green. “They’ve changed a lot in their merchandising over the last year, so they’ve done a great job and it’s a great place to check out.”
Demand probably will swing toward gift cards later in the shopping season, said Green, the retail consultant. He projected gift card sales could climb as much as 10 percent this year.
That’s because retailers, under pressure from Wall Street, kept a lid on inventory this year, Green said. That could cause some stores to run out of popular items and shoppers to depend more on gift cards.
Green added that, for many shoppers, Black Friday has become something of a social event.
“It’s a way to go out with friends,” he said.
“Sales for back-to-school items were so strong,” Green said. “And that sort of an analogy shows us where Christmas shopping may end up.”
The trend of opening earlier has been happening for awhile, but new this year are the waves of doorbuster deals designed to get customers into the stores Thursday night and again early Friday morning, Green said.
He warned consumers not to wait for specific products they want, as inventory levels are lower this year and supplies could run out for apparel, popular toys and, to an extent, consumer electronics.
“By the weekend before Christmas, we’re likely to see some stuff out of stock,” Green said.
“Those opening on Thanksgiving want you in their stores before you’re in anybody else’s. They want that sale on Thursday, not Friday, and they’re willing to do what it takes,” said retail consultant Jeff Green.
“Black Friday has become the only day of the year that’s more than 24 hours. Now it starts on Thursday,” said retail consultant Jeff Green, president and chief executive officer of Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix.
“Black Friday has become this kind of symbolic day, representative of the four-day shopping weekend,” Green said. “But what we found out last year, as retailers started creeping into Thanksgiving Day, is it doesn’t really increase the amount of business as much as it spreads out the shopping over the entire long weekend.”
“The people who hate it will never shop on Black Friday no matter what the deal is. But what you’ll find this year is that by Thanksgiving evening and very early the next morning, with everybody shopping earlier for those deep discount bargains, those items will be gone by 2 or 3 in the morning,” Mr. Green said.
Women spend four times more on holiday shopping than men, according to a 2011 study by online marketplace Alibaba.com. As a result, retailers direct much of their Black Friday marketing toward women, says Green.
“They’re making luxury products accessible to the masses,” said Jeff Green, a Phoenix retail consultant. “We’re an aspirational culture.”
Another concern for brick-and-mortar retailers is online shopping’s continued rise, said Jeff Green.
“They want shoppers to have as much of their Christmas lists filled before Cyber Monday comes,” Green said, referring the heavy online shopping day.
“I think we’re going to see out-of-stocks in December. (Layaway advertisements) definitely spurred sales and spurred sales early.” – Jeff Green
“Many … prefer boutique shopping in urban areas,” said retail consultant Jeff Green, who heads Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners.
“(Consumers) are going to many different sites, some of which are even the brick-and-mortars’ own websites to shop. Target and Walmart have their own apps, and people shop that way.”
“Neighborhood shopping centers are in high demand, given the fact that the healthiest shopping center category is the neighborhood, convenience-oriented center,” Jeff Green, of retail consultants Jeff Green Partners, Phoenix, told CPE.
“Every retailer should be using mobile apps by now,” said Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail consultant who has done extensive work in Southwest Florida. “It only increases the visibility of brick-and-mortar stores.”
Retail analyst Jeff Green believes Microsoft stores have logged sales of $1,500 per square foot on average per year. But the head of Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners compares that to his Apple-stores estimate of $6,000 per square foot per year.
But Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners retail consultancy in Phoenix, said consumers are tiring of political ads and have turned away from even trying to understand the upcoming “fiscal cliff” in January.
“I think early retail holiday ads will be welcome,” he said.
“In the vein of Steve Jobs, Amazon is a very patriarchal organization” — he’s likely had substantial influence over each of Amazon’s projects, says Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green.
“By developing so much in one area, they’re banking on the risk that customers will be willing to pass by other retail concentration to find better shopping,” Green said. “They will do it, but the question is how often?”
While Stamford Town Center became more inviting with the reconstruction of its entrance with various restaurants, it still is challenged by its multi-story layout, Green said.
“Given the fact that real estate is so expensive in urban areas I doubt that urban outlet centers will be a new phenomenon,” he notes.
Retail consultant Jeff Green expects a 3.5 percent to 5 percent increase this year, but unlike last year, when sales started early, the season probably won’t pick up until after the presidential election in November.
“I think this is going to reap the benefit of bringing in better and higher-quality tenants,” he said. “They want to go into a mall that helps them showcase the quality retailer they are.”
Still, despite these examples, the larger trend will continue to be big retailers downsizing the number of stores and moving more sales online, said Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail consultant.
“The post office is starting to decentralize its services and trying to become more convenient without their own real estate,” said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green Partners. “That also allows the retailer to offer something different from the competition.”
“Every place is a good place for a Trader Joe’s,” he said. “It appeals to young and old, it appeals to moderate to higher incomes, and its aggressive pricing appeals to all socio-economics these days.”
Trader Joe’s is significant because it represents the second major U.S. retailer, along with Costco, with a cult following to open in Sarasota in the past month, noted retail analyst Jeff Green.
“They are well priced, and they sell their own products pretty much. “It’s not a place where you go to do all your supermarket shopping. You can’t go there for selection, but you go for quality and price.”
“Those using this technology, the bulk of whom are under 40 years of age, care less about who knows their whereabouts or their buying habits,” he says.
Green says one similarity between the Microsoft store and the Apple store is that customers can play with the products. He says like an Apple store, a Microsoft store is “high touch.”
To hear audio from Jeff’s interview, click here.
Microsoft has “lost brand identity,” said Green, who believes the tech giant could buff its battered image by putting its products in front of customers in attractive stores staffed by courteous, knowledgeable workers.
“Keep an eye out for sales at Best Buy in the coming months,” says independent retail analyst Jeff Green. “They will start to edit their election to smaller goods.”
“Most developers are finding that Costco certainly increases traffic to the center, but it does not seem to significantly help the other co-tenants,” Green said.
“Costco is one of the most unique retailers in the U.S. as they appeal to all various demographics and lifestyles,” Green said.
At more than 500 stores, the retailer might offer a potential buyer high transaction volume, but “it’s not as high as it should be,” says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based retail real estate consulting firm. “It’s because of sheer store count.”
“The best prices are going to be in the next two weeks,” says Jeff Green, an independent retail analyst.
Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green Partners, has said exterior upgrades are usually last on the to-do list for merchants, since they don’t necessarily calculate to additional sales.
The challenges associated with establishing a brand from scratch are formidable, says Green. Retailers tend to find it easier to grow through acquisition, says retail consultant Jeff Green, who heads an eponymous firm in Phoenix.
It’s been trying to shed unprofitable locations, including plans to close 50 stores in calendar year 2012, but its big-box fleet remains bloated, according to Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based retail real estate consulting firm.
Jeff Green, a retail analyst with Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix, said that Microsoft stores are selling 25 percent of the volume of an Apple store at the same location. Though small by comparison, the number is nothing to balk at — Apple stores do 10 times the volume of the average store at the same location, Green said.
The dirty exteriors aren’t surprising, said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green Partners.
“Usually interior remodels come first because they generate the highest additional sales, so that means exterior remodels are further down on the list,” Green said. “Sometimes a developer will pressure a merchant like Macy’s to do something about that and then they would say pony up some money to help and the developer usually never will.”
“Stores feel like they’re being shopped as showcases,” says Jeff Green, an independent retail analyst based in Phoenix, Ariz. “This keeps them interested in bricks-and-mortar.”
Online shopping makes up a small but growing proportion of overall retail, and it will grow fastest among shoppers in their twenties and thirties, argued Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail real estate consultant. Many younger consumers treat shopping centers like showcases where they can go for a close-up view of merchandise before going home and making their purchases online.
Simon’s timing in selling, too, may also be opportune, because investors are showing more interest of late in properties like DeSoto Square, which are considered secondary, or Class B malls, in the retail industry, said retail consultant Jeff Green.
Given the diversity of the 30,000-plus people at RECon, it was inevitable that the convention’s vibe left varying impressions. “The mood is better,” said Jeff Green, president of Phoenix-based retail real estate consulting firm Jeff Green Partners and a 30-year RECon veteran. Nevertheless, Green added, “the attitude isn’t quite what I expected it to be.”
“It’s very, very difficult for the mom-and -pops, especially competing against the behemoths like Target and Walmart or even the mainstream stores like Safeway,” said Jeff Green of Phoenix-based retail consulting firm Jeff Green Partners.
The large number of vacancies could make a sale challenging, according to Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green Partners.
“It’s harder to sell a distressed mall and with the significant vacancy rate, however what they need to value is the site or the land because usually malls have good real estate,” Green said.
Typically built near regional malls and other high-traffic areas, power centers fared reasonably well— until the recent recession. When retailers began rethinking their store prototypes and questioning if they could be equally relevant in smaller spaces, the power center became less desirable.
“Financially, Cost Plus was performing okay, but not great,” says Jeff Green, a retail consultant and owner of Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners. “I was a little concerned that they might be closing some stores. They did leave certain markets several years ago. I wonder if they may now go back into those markets that they left.”
Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail marketing consultant, said the deal makes sense because the two retailers are complementary.
“They are not competitors. Bed, Bath & Beyond focuses on bath and kitchen while Cost Plus has very value-oriented specialty products and furthermore their price points are actually a bit different,” he said.
“The problem is—as we saw when developers started to roll out lifestyle centers—that everyone goes after the same markets,” says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based consulting firm. “And many times the newer folks to the outlet industry are going to find that it’s a much harder industry to get into when there are relationships that have been in place for so many years.”
That could mean you see a lot of relevant deals on your feed, assuming your friends have similar interests, says Jeff Green, an independent retail analyst. LivingSocial encourages users to post links on social media deals they bought, promising the purchased item free if three people click through and buy it, too. Groupon offers $10 credit if the person linking through is making their first purchase from the site.
Retail analyst Jeff Green, president & CEO of Jeff Green Partners, Phoenix, told Commercial Property Executive that Charming Shoppes needs to “right-size before they start expanding again.”
“Saks had lost some panache, although they have since turned the business around pretty well,” said retail consultant Jeff Green. “And there was the assumption that if Nordstrom was going in, why do you need Saks?”
“During the recession women spent more on their kids but not on themselves,” says independent retail analyst Jeff Green. “Strangely, they do appear to be getting more massages and weekly manicures.”
“They have a very broad-based appeal,” said retail analyst Jeff Green of Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix. “People who frequent discount stores like Target shop there. Even traditional Nordstrom shoppers will go to the Rack.”
Some analysts, including Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green, question whether faithful Longboat Saks shoppers will travel to the new mall, which is to be built on University Parkway near Interstate 75, about 12 miles from Southgate.
“The best demographics in Sarasota are along the coast,” Green said. “That’s making those people drive pretty far.”
Safeway is probably a better play for a private equity firm, said Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail marketing consultant.
“I think it’s going to be a private equity (firm) over some buyer like a Kroger,” he said. “I don’t think (Kroger) can affect (Safeway) sales. They have enough of their own issues to want to take on somebody else.”
Oh, how the game has changed. The giant construction machine that planted an average of 200 million square feet of power centers, regional malls and other retail products annually across the U.S. landscape in the mid-1990s has come to a virtual screeching halt.
They’re also centralizing checkouts and introducing self-service machines, says independent retail consultant Jeff Green, which means a longer walk for shoppers in search of a till and less floor personnel.
Jeff Green, president and CEO of retail real estate consulting firm Jeff Green Partners, adds that the size of the company’s products is also problematic. Televisions are becoming more slender and many of today’s electronics are more compact.
“The stores are simply too large for this environment,” says Green.
Safeway has enjoyed a strong base in the Bay Area for decades, said Jeff Green, a retail and real estate consultant with Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners, but the market has become more competitive than ever during the last decade.
Consumers will take some convincing, experts say. Best Buy needs to transform its remaining stores into an “experience” where shoppers want to hang out just like they do at Apple’s glass-encased showrooms or Barnes & Noble’s bookstores, which introduced cafés in 2004 to encourage shoppers to linger. “This is what will increase sales and get more people to shop there,” retail analyst Jeff Green. “As they are, these big blue stores lack any sort of excitement.”
According to Jeff Green, president and CEO of retail real estate consulting firm Jeff Green Partners, “The new Neiman Marcus at Broadway Plaza underscores the importance of this market as a growth corridor for top brands. This luxury department store now gives local shoppers even more reason to stay on their side of the Bay, where they can find what they want close to home.”
With low overhead and an appeal to the budget-conscious shopper, outlets are among the few projects that can get financed, said Jeff Green of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based real-estate consultant group that studies the feasibility of retail projects.
“Outlet malls have done so well that folks like Tanger are a wise bet for investors,” Green said.
“They are state of the art and they offer a lot of services and that’s what has set this retailer apart from the traditional camera stores and electronics chains,” said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green Partners. “Whenever you are an independent operator you can be more agile and than when you are a corporation.”
“The new Neiman Marcus at Broadway Plaza underscores the importance of this market as a growth corridor for top brands,” said Jeff Green, President and CEO of Jeff Green Partners, a retail real estate consulting firm. “This luxury department store now gives local shoppers even more reason to stay on their side of the Bay, where they can find what they want close to home.”
Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green Partners, has said the Sands outlet mall could be slow to fill spaces because of competition among designer outlet malls throughout the country.
Most retailers tend to have a “herding mentality,” said Jeff Green, a national retail consultant based in Arizona. They want to locate in areas where there are other retailers, he said.
“You have to look at retail as a magnet; they want to be in the middle of that magnet so they can pull from a greater distance,” he said.
Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, Phoenix-based real estate consultants, has long criticized the “bigger is better” movement.
“They think the bigger they are, the more exciting they are, and that’s not necessarily the case, as Apple has proven,” Green said. “Consumers like the smaller stores, like to be part of a ‘happening,’ and smaller stores have that feel.”
To be sure, some experts say it’s too soon to celebrate. “Things are just too unstable to make me comfortable that this is truly a sign,” says independent retail analyst Jeff Green.
One reason for the vacancy rate about-face is cheaper rents, said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green Partners.
“Rents went down when the economy went down,” Green said. “For many retailers it became a way to get into a market cheaply.”
The only thing that Talbots’ has to appeal to potential buyers right now is “a low stock price, because it’s going to take a lot to reposition” the chain, according to Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based retail real estate consulting firm.
This past November and December brought some record lows for TV prices, according to research firm NPD Display Search. Average prices for 32″ sets fell below $500 for the first time and sets up to 46″ averaged less than $1,000. Yet January may prove an even better time to buy as stores look to clear out current models, says Jeff Green, an independent retail analyst based in Phoenix.
“The retail market is thawing, not melting,” said Jeff Green, president and chief executive officer of the retail consulting firm Jeff Green Partners. “Sales were up, better than I expected. If consumer confidence stays up — meaning that more jobs are created and the housing market levels off — sales will continue to be up a bit in 2012.”
Retailers estimate that holiday returns will exceed $46 billion this year, an increase of 10% from two years ago, according to the National Retail Federation. Clothing is the No. 1 return, says retail analyst Jeff Green. He sees more “average” sizes being returned.
Jeff Green, a national retail consultant based in Arizona, said it’s uncommon to see a joint-ownership partnership such as Macerich and Simon had in the shopping mall industry.
“It’s very rare,” he said.
With competition among stores intensifying for recession-scarred consumers, retail analyst Jeff Green says stores have profit and sales targets to hit, shareholders to please and headlines to make.
Retailers who broke up brands—like Gap and Gap Baby and Gap Kids—are also reducing space use by reconsolidating, notes Jeff Green, CEO of Jeff Green Partners, a retail consulting firm in Phoenix.
“What we’re going to find, long-term, is that you get your best deals on the Internet,” says independent retail analyst Jeff Green.
But timing will be everything. Products that are expected to sell fast, like flat-screen TVs, will likely have the smallest discounts in the store, says Jeff Green, an independent retail analyst in Phoenix, Ariz.
The store has a big following, said Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail consultant who has worked in the Fresno area.
“DSW is perfect for your market,” he said. “They tend to be trendy, fashion forward, with great prices.”
Phoenix-based retail analyst Jeff Green said the announcement is long overdue and he’s surprised more Kmart stores did not close during the economic downturn. Green said Kmart lacks any sort of identity or brand differentiation to get customers in the doors.
“They’re not necessarily known for price or selection or even convenience,” he said. “I don’t see Kmart as being a long-term viable brand.”
“With apparel, you’re not going to find what you want in typical medium or large sizes,” said retail consultant Jeff Green. “You’ll probably find small and extra large or larger.”
And with large discounts on flat-screen TVs and other electronics already taken by many retailers during Black Friday, Green said he expects electronics to be “picked over” by the time after-holiday sales pick up.
The good news: Many stores that are looking to keep customers and entice them to make future purchase are lightening up on their return policies, says Jeff Green, an independent retail consultant in Phoenix, Ariz.
Jeff Green, a retail feasibility analyst based in Phoenix, said that this season, everyday discounts are not enough.
“They have to be deep discounts,” he said.
But how deep those discounts will be, and to what extent the merchandise will be available, is iffier, says Jeff Green, an independent retail analyst.
“Giant figures that we have to go head-to-head with Wegmans, we can’t afford not too,” said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green Partners. “They’re going after them and their prepared food market that Wegmans is known for.”
Over the past few years, TJX has been able to secure rental rates in the mid-single digits for locations in distressed centers, according to Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based retail real estate consulting firm.
A greater percentage of electronic sales are purchased on-line than ever before,” says Phoenix, Az.-based independent retail analyst Jeff Green. “This is a trend that will only continue.”
Others believe there’s less need for such good manners or good sense when it comes to paying for upgrades. “We are American,” says retail analyst Jeff Green, “and we need our toys now.”
Stores have ramped up email blasts to their most loyal customers this year to the point some may regret giving their addresses over freely and willingly, says retail analyst Jeff Green. During the month of December, retailers will send each of their subscribers 21 emails, up 15% on last year, according to a new survey. That translates into millions of email blasts, Green adds.
Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green Partners, said it was surprising that merchants did so well over the Black Friday weekend and cautioned that the momentum could fizzle in the coming weeks.
“The fact that the weekend was so good will bode well for sales over 2010, but it will be slowing down as we get into December,” Green said. “There will be a lack of promotions. They brought out all their big guns early.”
Stores approached the holiday season with lean inventories, so most of the offers will be on whatever unpopular items didn’t sell over Black Friday weekend, says Jeff Green, president of retail consulting firm Jeff Green Partners. “I really think some of the best deals have come and gone, so it’s going to be kind of a needle in the haystack to find those bargains,” he says.
Retail consultant Jeff Green said Target was busy from about midnight to 3 a.m., but traffic died off afterward.
“Maybe what is happening is the extended hours just has taken that Black Friday traffic and spread it over a distance,” said Green, president and chief executive officer of Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix, Ariz.
Jeff Green, president and chief executive officer of retail consulting firm Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix, anticipates a flat Christmas sales season.
‘We may see a percent or two increase over last year,’ he said.
To retail consultant Jeff Green, president and CEO of Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix, that’s a sign shoppers are still a little reticent about splurging in a weak economy.
“They’re buying family gifts,” he said. “Things the whole family can use, like Wiis and televisions. Televisions are at their lowest prices in years.”
But holiday sales at many stores started much earlier, said Jeff Green, a retail consultant based in Phoenix, Ariz. Instead of waiting for Black Friday, retailers were at it in October, he said — and consumers responded. While Black Friday might once have been the day stores turned a profit for the year, Green thinks many went into the black before Thanksgiving this time.
“So much of the Christmas sales are being done earlier,” he said.
Retail analyst Jeff Green of Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners has a more conservative forecast. He believes retail sales will increase by only 1 to 1.5 percent over last year. “There’s been no improvement in consumer confidence” since last year, he said. He does anticipate department store sales will be stronger than he originally expected.
“Now black Friday isn’t even Black Friday, it’s oozed into Thursday,” Jeff Green, president and CEO of Jeff Green Partners, told MLive Detroit. “So what is black Friday? I think Black Friday is a day where those who want to power shop and view shopping as a sport want to go out and be part of the activity.”
“I’d try to be done by the first week of December,” said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Jeff Green Partners, a retail consulting firm. “If stores start to run out of the must-have products, we could see prices rise as Christmas approaches. That would be a first.”
“It’s not as though they necessarily want to be open those hours, as much as they feel they competitively have to,” said Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green. “They’re all going after a reduced dollar amount. They’re trying to one-up their competitors.”
After Walmart announced it would be opening its doors at 10 p.m., other stores moved up their start times too. Target, Macy’s, Bon-Ton, Kohl’s and Best Buy will open at midnight. The turkey will barely be cold when Toys R Us gets going at 9 p.m. Kmart will be open all day.
“It’s a competitive issue,” said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green Partners. “Nobody wants their competitor to have the upper hand.”
“The importance of Black Friday is being diluted,” said Jeff Green, a retail analyst and president of Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix. “The perception has been that Black Friday equals a bargain but that’s not necessarily the case. The sales have already been as good as they’ll be on Black Friday.”
“Now is a great time for outlet stores,” said Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail-feasibility consultant. “They offer better-quality merchandise at the discounts that consumers are looking for.”
Stores are less likely to offer big discounts on top quality in-demand electronics on Black Friday, says Jeff Green, an independent retail analyst in Phoenix, Ariz.
Other than expenses from holiday pay and added security, there’s little downside for retailers and centers to open on Thanksgiving night, said consultant Jeff Green, president and CEO of Jeff Green Partners of Phoenix. “In fact, I think we’ll eventually see most stores opening on Thanksgiving, much like what happened with New Year’s Day several years ago,” Green predicted.
For most retailers that open over-sized stores on major urban thoroughfares, the stores likely won’t reflect a portfolio-wide strategy, says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based real estate consulting firm.
“You now see them spreading out the impact of Black Friday into like three and a half months,” said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green Partners. “This is due to competitiveness because when one merchant does it the others follow and the idea in the retailer’s mind is to make sure they have little to no holiday inventory the day after Christmas.”
“The consumer confidence measure is the perception, and the perception is the reality,” said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green Partners.
Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a retail-consulting firm based in Phoenix, believes bookstores of around 2,500 square feet offer a perfectly viable—if only modestly profitable—business model.
Retailers say they’re only thinking of their customers, but analysts disagree. “We released our Black Friday savings early this year for our customers because we know they are watching every penny this year, and would appreciate being able to plan ahead,” says Walmart spokeswoman Sarah Spencer. But retail analyst Jeff Green says stores have targets to hit, shareholders to please and headlines to make. “Watch for others to follow suit,” he says.
Retail experts say consumers who hold off on holiday shopping until the last two weeks of December are most at risk of missing deals. By then, most discounts on electronics and home appliances will be smaller, says Jeff Green, an independent retail consultant in Phoenix, Ariz.
“Black Friday is being diluted,” said Phoenix, Ariz.-based retail analyst Jeff Green. “You can find deep discounts if you look hard enough any time, not just Black Friday.”
Black Friday is still the biggest retail shopping day of the year, but early promotions could spell weaker sales that day, said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green Partners.
“Certainly, the day’s importance is getting diluted,” as stores start rolling out deep discounts on gift items and holiday decor sooner, Green said. Some chains, such as Wal-Mart, began their promotions as early as September, he said.
“Black Friday itself will be worse than last year,” says Jeff Green, an independent retail analyst based in Phoenix, Az. “With the sales season starting in September it just dilutes the importance of Black Friday.” Green says holiday spending will be flat this year, or up 1% in a “best case scenario.”
“It’s a subtle way to get you to buy more, and pay more for it,” says Jeff Green, owner of retail consulting firm Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix. Using emotional marketing tactics is one more way that retailers, are trying to wean shoppers off the big discounts of years past, Mr. Green adds.
Fewer shoppers on Black Friday has another upside, experts say. “The last thing retailers want is customers being injured because they’re swarming their front door,” says retail analyst Jeff Green.
“They want to not have too much inventory after Christmas,” said Phoenix retail consultant Jeff Green.
Green said he has never seen Christmas decorations up as early as this year. “It is surprising and it has changed and what it does is that it makes Black Friday less important,” Green said.
Temporary Halloween stores set up in both vacant big box and mall spaces, said Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a retail feasibility consulting firm based in Phoenix. “The timing is perfect for landlords,” he said. Just when they break down a Halloween pop-up store, they can court a Christmas holiday pop-up retailer.
Retail analyst Jeff Green of Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners said worries about the economy are dampening shoppers’ spirits. He predicts sales will rise an anemic 1 percent over last year’s cheerless figures.
“The economy has trained us to hold back and really shop for bargains,” he said.
“Jeff Green is a retail analyst in Phoenix. He say Apple stores earn more than twice much cash per square foot than any retail chain in the world.”
Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail analyst, says that, in total, both Apple and Microsoft’s stores rank well above the industry average in sales.
Apple’s average sales per square foot stands at about $5,250, he estimates, while Microsoft’s is at $1,500 — still about three times that of the industry average for specialty stores.
”For a while it seemed like you could stand in a Starbucks at a Barnes & Noble and look out the window at two other Starbucks,” said Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail consultant specializing in restaurant locations.
“Now their plan is to very carefully open new places.”
Retail analyst Jeff Green says too many discounted stores and/or promotions at stores like Macy’s undermines the value of discounts. “When is a sale not a sale? When you already buy the cheaper, similar merchandise elsewhere.”
“Private-equity firms typically only buy retailers that they know they can grow, and this is definitely a chain that can grow,” said Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail consultant who has worked in the past for Sur La Table. “I’m sure you’ll see its expansion continue, and maybe even increase.”
Retailers started preparing for the fall spending onslaught months ago, when the stock market was thriving and there was general optimism about the economy, says Jeff Green, an independent retail analyst and placed orders accordingly. They may have overshot, leaving them with supply that exceeds demand. And it’s too late to do anything but cut prices. “Retailers can’t reduce their inventory now,” Green says. “It’s too late.” Consumers can expect bigger discounts and more early holiday sales to ease their budget crunch.
“The department store boxes in malls have proven to be fairly valuable, which was not expected,” notes Green. “But then [we saw] Target and Costco taking over some of these boxes.”…
Some categories of retail are outperforming others this back-to-school season, noted Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, retail feasibility consultants based in Phoenix.
Consumer electronics sales are strong, Green said, while apparel sales are mixed. Women’s apparel sales have been relatively weak, while children’s, teen and men’s apparel sales are stronger. Men’s apparel has traditionally been a weak performer this time of year, but that seems to be changing, he said.
“Most people can spend as much or more than last year. They’re just choosing not to,” said Jeff Green, a retail consultant based in Phoenix. “A lot of it’s changed just in the last couple of weeks.
“July was pretty good and retailers were hoping they could raise prices in August, but with all the uncertainty, that’s risky now.”
Even if you don’t follow the economy closely, the negative messages are “relentless,” Green said. “You can’t help but absorb it, even subconsciously. People are cutting back without even realizing it.”
“Macy’s and Dillard’s are all about promotion — more promotion, more value. They are coming closer to discounters,” said Jeff Green, president and chief executive officer of consulting firm Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix. “No one comes in there thinking they are going to buy a full-priced product.”
Back-to-school total sales, as opposed to the monthly comparisons, “will be flat to slightly declining, and that’s just because of the uncertainty of the economy,” said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Jeff Green Partners. While he noted that analysts predicted that last year, and consumers surprised them, “last year it felt like we were starting to climb out of the recession,” he said. “The last couple days all we hear is about the possibility of the double dip.”
But this year, with retailers’ back-to-school sales kicking in early and a less-than-stellar economic outlook, shopping while the tax is waived is a smart move, says Jeff Green, an independent retail analyst. “Everything is already on sale, and probably as low as it’s going to go, once you hit August 1,” he says.
Alabama-based Books-A-Million is in talks with Borders to take over 30 of its stores. But Fresno was not on a list of stores Books-A-Million is interested in, released by The Associated Press Friday.
Books-A-Million’s average size is smaller than the River Park location, and the retailer is focused on expanding on the East Coast, said Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail consultant.
Jeff Green, principal of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based consultancy that scouts locations for national retailers said too many burger places are opening in the Valley.
“The places that concern me right now are burgers, cupcakes and yogurt. I definitely think there’s saturation with Five Guys, Smashburger and now Habit,” he said.
The usual fast-food burger joints and specialty burger places such as the Grind and Zinburger all are competing for the same dollars, Green said.
It’s also a possibility that electronics chain Best Buy, which has been concentrating on opening stores in the 30,000-square-foot range, would be interested in relocating to vacant Borders boxes from some of its existing locations, according to Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix, Ariz.-based retail real estate consulting firm.
Jeff Green, president and CEO of Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix, which specializes in retail real estate, said he thinks the next evolution of bookstores would be about 2,500 square feet — roughly 10% of the size of Borders superstores.
“I’m wondering if there will be a rise in independent bookstores and we’ll come full circle,” Green said.
Trader Joe’s offers an edited selection … here are the products that we like and we think you will like,” said Jeff Green, principal of Jeff Green Partners, a Scottsdale, Ariz., retail consulting firm. “They keep hitting the mark that way so it makes shopping kind of easy.”
Faced with higher costs from manufacturers and dismal consumer spending projections, they have cut inventory with a plan to sell fewer goods at higher prices, says Jeff Green, an independent retail consultant.
Jeff Green is a retail consultant from Phoenix visiting Palm Springs. LG’s is known for it’s elegance, as well as its pricy plates. “The viability just isn’t there at the moment. It may come back, but for now I’m looking at the less expensive option–the Chop House.”
And the leasing perspective is one thing, but the investment perspective is something else again, says consultant Jeff Green, who heads Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners. “Those New York types probably wouldn’t be impressed with a pawn shop on a property they were looking at,” Green said.
“Both Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus, in particular, are proceeding cautiously with retail expansions,” said Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based retail consultant.
“Microsoft Stores are very well designed, attractive stores,” said Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a retail feasibility consulting firm in Phoenix.
“The city hired Jeff Green Partners, of Pheonix, Az., to conduct the market feasibility study for some $30,000. What came back was encouraging…”
Jeff Green of Phoenix retail consulting firm Jeff Green Partners. is more optimistic, but not by much.
“Lifestyle centers have almost run their course,” he said. “Most of them are struggling, but most of the ones in trouble are newer ones in markets that are overbuilt, which Bakersfield is not.”
“Even today, tenants wanting to get into that center often have to wait until a spot becomes available, notes Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix, Ariz.-based real estate consulting firm.”
Retail consultant Jeff Green says these kinds of social issues are becoming increasingly important here too. “It figures that a store with its headquarters in a Scandinavian country would be inclusive,” he says, citing Sweden’s recognition of same-sex marriage. “Ikea knows its customer base worldwide is diverse and it will never exclude anybody. Sophisticated global brands tend to be more proactive in donating to social causes.”
Across the U.S., Guam, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, there are about 1,306 Kmart stores. Kmart stores are usually one-level freestanding buildings averaging 93,000 square feet in size. Unlike Sears stores, most of the Kmarts are positioned in weaker locations in secondary markets, notes Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based real estate consulting firm.
All of these retailers have operated in malls before, but typically have preferred freestanding locations or spots in neighborhood and power centers. A unique combination of market forces has made it an opportune time to expand into regional malls, according to Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix, Ariz.-based real estate consulting firm.
“They are taking a little bit more of a moderate and younger approach to tenanting and that’s exactly how that mall should be,” said Jeff Green, president and chief executive at Phoenix retail consultancy Jeff Green Partners. “A moderate income, younger customer is actually the customer of the future.”
Observers think the strategy makes sense. Not only are some of these retailers large enough to occupy anchor boxes—many Costco stores, for example, measure more than 100,000 square feet—they drive high foot traffic more regularly than department stores, according to Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based real estate consulting firm.
Traditional retail was hit hard during the economic downtown, said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix. “Outlet retail is now the darling of the retail real estate industry.”
Jeff Green, president and CEO of Jeff Green Partners, the Phoenix, Ariz.-based real estate consultancy, cites the example of private-equity investors who run retailers into the ground. “When private-equity firms buy them, retail businesses become financial assets,” he says. “They are run financially, not with an eye toward the consumer. At the moment, this question permeates the entire industry: ‘Will retailers remain real retailers?’ ”
Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail consultant, said the chain is taking over affordable, large locations in areas with a mix of races and ethnicities. The retailer appeals to a cross-section of young women, he said.
“You can’t say that about a lot of retailers,” he said.
The smallest lifestyle centers, those of less than 100,000 square feet, have proven to be the most vulnerable, says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based real-estate consulting firm. The industry will lose some lifestyle centers by attrition, Green says, “and will become more right-sized.”
“Unlike Sears stores, most of the Kmarts are positioned in weaker locations in secondary markets, notes Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based real estate consulting firm.”
“I really see retail sales as flat, even though reports show an increase, because there was such a minor increase piggybacking off of pent up demand from trying times,” said Retail Consultant Jeff Green.
“And during the holidays, surveys indicated shoppers were buying for themselves as well as others, both to take advantage of sales and to ward off higher prices in the future, says Jeff Green, an independent retail consultant.”
“Not all retail space is created equal,” said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix retail consultancy Jeff Green Partners.
“Once a purchase is made, there’s little guarantee the furniture will arrive in the time frame that the store claims, says Jeff Green, an independent retail consultant.”
“Many people didn’t replace their computers and other gadgets during the recession, and new bells and whistles like app connectivity appeal to shoppers’ pent-up demand, says Jeff Green, an independent retail consultant.”
“It sounds like she has a really good background for Bealls core competencies,” said Jeff Green, an Arizona retail consultant. “She’s done discount retailing and speciality retailing, which is an interesting combination for somebody like Bealls.”
“Online retail is now like a tropical storm working its way into a hurricane and growing exponentially — it’s a little scary for traditional retail,” said Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail feasibility consultant.
And while there will likely be fewer goods on the shelves, Green said he expects even more aggressive discounting than usual as retailers seek to clear their shelves quickly.
“The amount of merchandise will be minimal, and cheaper,” he said. “It kind of defies the law of supply and demand.”
And those who ignore his advice? “They’ll find discounted stuff, but they may not find their size or exactly what they’re looking for,” he said.
Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail consultant, predicted sales this season would increase 2 to 4 percent from the holiday season of 2009.
Jeff Green, who heads an Arizona retail consulting firm and has worked in Southwest Florida, predicts sales this December will be up a more modest 2 percent to 4 percent from a year ago.
“Yes, at the end of the month I think we will have done better than 2009, but I wouldn’t say the results will be tremendous,” Green said. “For retail, it won’t come back fully until the economy truly comes back, and employment truly comes back.”
After nearly a week of steady rainfall, Las Vegas is feeling some pent-up demand for Christmas shopping, retail analyst Jeff Green of Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners said.
“There’s a lot of shopping that hasn’t been done yet because of the weather,” he said. “We’re not used to bad weather. We don’t venture out in it much and that’s why the last few days will be crazy.”
“The fundamental shift is like a barbell. The value, or middle class shopper, is on one end and the luxury shopper is on the other,” said Retail Consultant Jeff Green.
Jeff Green, a retail analyst, said he anticipates holiday retail sales will range from flat to up to 2 percent over a year ago. Losing a weekend during the shopping season because Christmas is on a Saturday will dampen this year’s results, as will high unemployment, he said.
But retail consultant Jeff Green said it probably has more to do with people becoming more at ease with and aware of Internet sales.
“I think what people are realizing is they can get the same discounts online as they can by being in the store at 3 a.m.,” he said. “That’s a huge ‘ah-ha’ moment by the consumer.”
“I think [this year’s results represent] a big sea change,” said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Jeff Green Partners, Phoenix. “The impact of Black Friday is going to be diluted as different ways of shopping become more the norm, Internet shopping being the biggest of them all.”
An early Hannukah has the potential to boost stores’ November sales 3% to 4%, says Jeff Green, an independent retail consultant. As it is, retailers already have less overstock compared with previous years, And coupled with already strong sales, stores have less incentive to slash prices on anything that wasn’t already headed for the clearance rack. (Green’s family, for one, bought gifts before Black Friday for the first few nights of Hannakuh, and the rest on Cyber Monday for delivery.) The last two years, consumers could count on a steady stream of December deals, right through Christmas, but not this year.
“Some people look at Black Friday shopping as a sport, but there are other people who would rather drop dead than go out and battle the crowds,” said retail analyst Jeff Green of Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners. “Now virtually every retailer has an online presence. It’s only going to get bigger and bigger.”
Most stores announce Cyber Monday specials shortly after Black Friday, the Friday after Thanksgiving and the traditional start to the holiday season, said Jeff Green, a Valley-based retail feasibility expert.
Cyber Monday sales grew 5 percent from 2008 to 2009. Green expects at least 7 percent to 9 percent growth this year.
The rest of this holiday season will largely be dictated by how much extra shoppers buy this weekend, said Jeff Green, CEO of Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix. Retailers will react accordingly, and fast, using technology to crunch sales data almost instantly.
Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail consultant, speculated that the strong traffic stemmed from an abbreviated shopping season. “I wonder if some of this has been pushed to Black Friday because there is one less weekend before Christmas this year,” he said.
“The busiest stores I’ve seen have been Best Buy and Apple stores,” said Jeff Green, a veteran retail analyst based in Phoenix. “So that tells you people are looking for electronics.”
Discounting on electronics gadgets and other wares began earlier this month, said Green.
Cyber Monday sales could be up as much as 9 percent over last year, said Jeff Green, a Valley-based retail expert.
Last year, almost 60 percent of the more than $887 million in Cyber Monday purchases were made from the workplace, Green said.
Retail consultant Jeff Green said that it probably will take a while for the movement to catch on, particularly with the down economy.
“I think it’s a great idea to get more people shopping local, but in this economy everything is about price,” Green said, adding that many small businesses can’t match the big national retailers on discounts.
Jeff Green of Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners said it didn’t appear as though consumers were doing as much Christmas shopping in October as retailers had hoped. He thinks estimates of a 3 percent increase in holiday sales are way too high.
Store openings at 3 and 4 a.m. are designed to lure what retail consultant Jeff Green, chief executive officer of Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix, calls “the power shopper” – people for whom Black Friday bargain-hunting is a sport and who will do anything for a bargain. Kohl’s, for example, is opening at 3 a.m. in a bid to catch the power shoppers before they go to Target or Macy’s, he said.
Retail consultant Jeff Green, of Jeff Green Partners, said it will be hard to get a good reading on this year’s Black Friday because it will be diluted by store openings Thursday and because of special sales on Saturday, Sunday, and so-called Cyber-Monday, an Internet shopping day.
The ones that decided to open Thanksgiving Day — a pre-recession rarity — “shows how desperate they are to grab dollars earlier than their competitors,” said retail consultant Jeff Green. “This is about the competitive landscape and the few dollars available to spend.”
As a result, Black Friday’s importance as the kickoff for the shopping season is becoming “diluted,” he said.
“It’s like everybody is trying to get you into their store first,” said Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail consultant. “We certainly have seen a lot more promotional items earlier in the year this year.”
Green questions the value of some retailers being open on Thanksgiving Day, since women are the primary shoppers and they’re also usually busy in the kitchen on the holiday.
“But again, everybody is fighting for the same dollar, and the same dollar is harder to get in this economy than it’s ever been,” he said.
“Jewelry buying is becoming either very value based or it’s high-end luxury based. It’s the area in between that’s not doing well,” said Jeff Green of Jeff Green Partners.
“Everybody wants the customer first,” said Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail consultant whose feasibility study led to the placement of the Sur La Table store in downtown Sarasota. “That’s why there’s such a trend toward Thanksgiving shopping.”
Still, shoppers are expected to head to the mall with a stagnant job market in the back of their minds, so stores will be at least as promotional as last year, said Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green.
“Whatever the numbers say doesn’t really mean anything,” Green said. “Even if people perceive the economy is turning around, it isn’t that they feel this is the end of the recession. People are pretty nervous.”
“One of the things we’re noticing as we begin to slowly recover from this recession, as it relates to retail sales, is that the strongest categories are value on one end of the barbell, beginning now, luxury on the other end of the barbell,” said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Jeff Green Partners, Phoenix.
Jeff discusses early holiday shopping with The Baltimore Sun
“This is one of the first years I’ve said it’s probably good to buy early,” said Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail consultant. “The week before Christmas, retailers will be out of some product.”
Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail consultant, said Thursday’s reports offered little reason to be optimistic about Christmas sales. He expects sales gains of less than 2 percent.
“There’s really no indication that this Christmas is going to be anything but marginally better than last year,” he said.
“Obviously, international retailers are coming to the United States because it is much more affordable from an occupancy and cost perspective,” said Jeff Green, a retail consultant who heads Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix. “And when you are making your entry into the United States, Manhattan and Los Angeles are the only two possible places if you are fashion-forward.”
Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, said Microsoft’s plan is to grab foot traffic by setting up so close to Apple.
“It’s a great move that will generate cross-shopping,” Green told the Pioneer Press. “This is better for Microsoft than it is for Apple. Sometimes you want to be directly across from your competition.”
Green did have some reservations about the size of the store, however, referring to the Apple environment as being more intimate.
Midrange retailers like Zales or Jared are expected to cut prices by up to 50%, says Jeff Green, a retail industry consultant. (High-end stores like Tiffany aren’t likely to offer the same discounts.) But be patient, he adds.
Microsoft’s proximity to its apple competitor is no accident, said Jeff Green, Phoenix-based president of the Jeff Green Partners retail consultancy. The company intends to siphon off some of the foot traffic from Apple stores, which had 75 million visitors during the last fiscal quarter.”It’s a great move that will generate cross-shopping,” Green noted. “This is better for Microsoft than it is for Apple. Sometimes you want to be directly across from your competition.”
Jeff Green, a Phoenix-based retail-feasibility consultant, said, “They want population in place and won’t look at anything in high-growth areas.”
Green spent much of the past decade analyzing sites for new retail projects on the fringes of high-growth markets such as Phoenix and Las Vegas. Now he’s doing feasibility studies for redevelopment projects and infill sites.
“I’m talking to a lot of potential acquirers who are looking for properties with population in place that can be redeveloped,” he said.
“I’d wonder if another reason (Levy) is delaying the store openings is a sense that consumer confidence is continuing to fall,” said Jeff Green, head of Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners. “Maybe he wants to ride out the recession a little bit longer before opening a new chain in the depths of all this.”
Jeff Green, president of Phoenix-based Jeff Green Partners, cited Hibbett Sporting Goods, Birmingham, Ala., for doing an excellent job of expanding from its Southeastern regional roots to a national presence.
With 767 stores in 24 states, Hibbett Sporting Goods has a smaller store footprint than Dick’s Sporting Goods or Sports Authority and usually is located as an inline tenant rather than a freestanding box.
“Regional retailers are often stronger than national chains because they haven’t over-expanded,” Green explained.
Indeed, Seafood City draws from a much larger geographic trade area than a typical supermarket, says Jeff Green, head of his own retail consulting firm in Phoenix. Most supermarkets pull shoppers from about a three-mile trade area, says Green, but with Seafood City, “the trade area is more based on the ethnicity of the consumer.”
“It’s an excellent strategy,” says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Phoenix-based retail real estate consulting firm. “It’s a way to lease space to somebody who generates a lot of traffic on an ongoing basis. And because the mall pulls people from a greater distance [than a shopping center], it’s now seen as a pretty good place for food stores to locate.”
“The fundamentals of the economy haven’t changed much over the last year,” said Jeff Green, president and CEO of Phoenix-based retail consultant Jeff Green Partners.
“This is a fantastic site,” says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Mill Valley, Calif.-based retail real estate consulting firm. “It’s a very captive market; you’ve got to travel some distance to get to [another] regional retail center. What’s been the problem with the mall previously was just that it was old and not kept up. So if they make those physical changes, I think it will be a very good project.”
Women’s-only apparel stores are more likely to offer such discounts this month in part because women — especially those running a household — have pulled back on spending to prioritize for family needs, says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a retail consulting firm.
July is the month retailers roll out deep discounts on most summer items to make way for back-to-school season and for the fall. The question is: Are this year’s discounts deep enough? Women’s-only apparel stores are more likely to offer such discounts this month in part because women – especially those running a household – have pulled back on spending to prioritize for family needs, says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a retail consulting firm.
Jeff Green, president of shopping center consultancy Jeff Green Partners in Phoenix, worked on the early stages of the Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza remodel. He said the project illustrates the value of a stable consumer base. During the housing boom, developers built shopping centers near new home tracts, many of which now stand mostly vacant.
“Retailers realize they should never have gone to San Bernardino and Riverside counties, where the population never came,” Green said. “It’s now going to be a trend for retail development and redevelopment to happen closer to the housetops.”
More retail developers are repositioning themselves by adding medical, educational and other tenants, said Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, retail feasibility consultants. He is working in several states with shopping center developers and medical users.
“This is a great mall for Forever 21 to be in, even if it is high-end,” said Jeff Green, a retail consultant in Phoenix. “That is one of the great things about Forever 21. They can go into a moderate mall like Cerritos [the Los Cerritos Center in Cerritos, Calif.] or a high-end mall and do extremely well.”
This is one savvy retailer that obviously pays rapt attention to its target consumer, who in turn is taken by its strategic locations, copious choices, better-than-average price points, devoted customer service, efficient layouts and ongoing education efforts.
Given the new market realities, however, roughly 40 percent of those centers might ultimately prove unviable and will have to be converted to other uses, says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Mill Valley, Calif.-based real estate consulting firm.
“The best-positioned department stores are the ones who are the most promotional, and Gottschalks had a good track record of that,” said Jeff Green of Jeff Green Partners, a Mill Valley consulting firm. “If Levy can keep the debt low, keep his store count low and sell promotional-priced merchandise, I think he can actually find a niche for himself competing with stores like Macy’s.”
Given the new market realities, however, roughly 40 percent of those centers might ultimately prove unviable and will have to be converted to another use, says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Mill Valley, Calif.-based real estate consulting firm. And here size matters. Centers that contain less than 500,000 square feet of space may prove to be vulnerable.
“You look at the lifestyle center as a magnet. The smaller the center, the smaller the magnetic attraction, therefore it’s more vulnerable,” Green says. “If retailers are going to close stores, those are the centers where they are going to close stores first.”
Lately, many national retailers have been shying away from lifestyle centers, said Jeff Green, the president of retail consultants Jeff Green Partners in Mill Valley, Calif.
When national chains start expanding again, they’ll probably first look at “the better malls they’re not already in,” he said. Green, who has visited LaCenterra, speculated that phase 2 might appeal more to locally owned retailers than national chains.
Landlords are not just letting retailers walk away with reductions in rent, says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a retail project consulting firm based in Mill Valley, California.
“The larger retailers have more leverage in lease renegotiations than smaller retailers,” says Green. “There are many retailers who are going through their entire portfolio to renegotiate. The pushback from landlords has been surprisingly strong.”
The average household income within a three-mile radius of Livonia Marketplace is $65,120, according to retail consultant Jeff Green. Within a five-mile radius, average household income is $66,300 and the population totals 244,374. Those demographics meet the criteria of a wide variety of retailers.
“People are shopping for deals at the department stores,” says Jeff Green, a retail consultant who is the head of the firm Jeff Green Partners.
“A lot of retailers don’t like the co-tenancy of fitness centers because they can be parking hogs,” Green said. “But now, retailers don’t mind the co-tenancy because they need the traffic. They’d rather see a full box than an empty box, and there aren’t many retailers to fill boxes these days.”
Even as retailers lured shoppers to their stores by offering deep discounts, they also made great strides tightening their inventories and slashing payroll and operating costs, an impressive feat, says Jeff Green, president and CEO of Mill Valley, Calif.–based consulting firm Jeff Green Partners. “Even on flat or declining sales, some retailers have now repositioned their businesses so that they are making money,” Green said. “What a surprise.”
It takes roughly six to eight months for the price of gold to impact the price at which gold jewelry is sold to consumers, says Jeff Green, the president of Mill Valley, Calif.-based Jeff Green Partners, a retail consulting firm.
Malls are not, however, the chain’s typical choice, says Green. “Their typical M.O. is to be really near their target customer,” he said. Sources say Tilly’s does particularly well in power centers. The concept is a strong draw across income and racial lines, says Green. “Understanding the number of supportable stores in a market is critical,” said Green. “The key is how well they’re accepted between the coasts. Are they just a coastal concept?”
Consider the “promotion incentive fee,” which is a selling incentive that leads sales staff to heavily favor one brand over another. This is typically a direct commission from the retailer, and it rewards sales associates for selling certain products – usually those with the highest point margin, says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Mill Valley, Calif.-based retail consulting firm. It is increasingly popular with retailers, especially in the home furnishing and consumer electronics sectors. Customers who are unaware of this fee just think the salesperson is focusing on the product they believe is best. “Consumers should beware if they’re being oversold on a certain piece of merchandise,” says Green. “They have to ask themselves why this is.”
Another predictor of success is whether the retailer sells unique merchandise through its outlet stores, or the same products found at its mall stores, says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Mill Valley, Calif.-based consulting firm. He brings up Gap Inc. as an example of outlets done right—“it’s almost like another brand, not just a Gap store.” New York & Company plans to eventually produce merchandise specific to its outlet format.
Jeff Green, a retail consultant in the San Francisco Bay Area, thinks cash-strapped shoppers are more likely to return gifts, making an already-difficult holiday-sales season even more difficult. “If you get something you don’t need or want, you’ll probably return it so you can get the cash and buy something you need,” Green said. “It’s really going to be a not-great season.”
“It’s very hard for me to wrap my arms around it because what is going to differentiate it from other stores selling those same products” that run on Windows, said Jeff Green, a retail analyst in Mill Valley, Calif. “As a way of marketing Windows 7, I thought it was brilliant.”
The current retail environment is actually better for regional retailers than it is for local retailers, said Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, retail feasibility consultants in Mill Valley, Calif.
Retail strategist Jeff Green explains that, “Doorbusters are not something that retailers want to do, but they have to, in order to stay competitive.” However, Green warns, “businesses are getting leaner, with much less inventory on-hand.” What this means to shoppers is that if they put off purchases of in-demand items, they may get completely sold out, making Black Friday an even-more-crucial shopping day this year.
“They really need to add an ‘s’ to it and start calling it Black Fridays because it no longer is one specific day anymore,” said retail consultant Jeff Green of Jeff Green Partners Inc. For example, on Oct. 31, Sears kicked off its “Black Friday Now” program, offering Black Friday pricing each Saturday on a rotating selection of items.
“High-end luxury is going to be in a tailspin for many years because the way people spend will be impacted for a long time even after a recovery,” says Jeff Green, the president of Mill Valley, Calif.-based Jeff Green Partners, a retail consulting firm. Exclusive designers have “started to align with off-price and mass merchants to sell a more affordable, yet stylish product in an attempt to address consumers’ shift toward value,” he adds.
Much has been said about the similarities between the Apple stores and the new Microsoft store, and while it is easy to see why those comparisons have been made, they are actually two very different stores.
That impact isn’t immediate. It takes roughly six to eight months for the price of gold to alter the price at which gold jewelry is sold to consumers, says Jeff Green, the president of Mill Valley, Calif.-based Jeff Green Partners, a retail consulting firm, which tracks retail jewelry trends and prices. Retailers purchased the jewelry they’re now selling roughly six to eight months ago, and consumers are getting lower prices for their purchases now than they will in 2010, when the current price of gold will be reflected in the jewelry market.
Pop-up stores could change the way lease terms are handled over the long term, says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Mill Valley, Calif.-based consulting firm.
Electronics may be one retail category where “we will see early-season discounts because stores are feeling pressure from online sites,” said Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, retail feasibility consultants in Mill Valley, Calif.
It’s a sign that retailers still believe customers have money to spend, particularly because there are few nearby cities with large retailers to compete, said Jeff Green, a retail consultant in Mill Valley. “Fresno has a great deal of pent-up retail potential,” he said.
Retailers won’t decide to significantly cut prices until around Black Friday — once they have a sense of how much inventory they still have, says Jeff Green, the president of Mill Valley, Calif.-based Jeff Green Partners, a retail consulting firm.
Kohl’s acquired the properties as a result of taking over store leases that were once part of the Hayward-based Mervyns retail chain that went bankrupt last year. “They were competing head-to-head in so many different markets,” said Jeff Green, a Mill Valley-based retail consultant.
“What does surprise me is that in an environment in which Starbucks is closing stores, they haven’t closed one of those two stores. Both must do very well” in the upscale River Oaks area, said Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, retail feasibility consultants in Mill Valley, Calif.
Jeff Green, president and CEO of Jeff Green Partners in Mill Valley, Calif., does market research for retailers. He said the continued growth of Wal-Mart and Meijer in Michigan is heartwarming since so many retailers will say no to the state without realizing the opportunity they are rejecting.
“CityCentre is one of the nicest, more unique projects in one of the strongest U.S. markets. It’s just going to take a while to get retail off the ground because of the economy,” said Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, retail feasibility consultants in Mill Valley, Calif.
But while pop-up shops will likely become a common sight as the retail industry heads into the holiday shopping season this fall, don’t look for the trend to hold up once real estate fundamentals return to more normal levels, says Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Mill Valley, Calif.-based consulting firm.
Saving money on back-to-college purchases is top priority this year for most families, says Jeff Green, the president of a retail consultancy based in Mill Valley, Calif. One of the easiest ways to save, especially for freshmen who have the most expenses, is to compare prices in stores and online, he says.
Such a tenant focus makes sense, said Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a retail feasibility consultants based in Mill Valley, Calif. “In downtown Houston, you’ve got tons of overnight hotel guests and a huge number of office workers,” Green said.
Jeff Green, president of retail consultancy Jeff Green Partners in Mill Valley, California, said the winning bid was on the steep side. “I would say it’s a fairly high number, considering its brand recognition is strong but nobody is quite sure what it is and who it appeals to.”
Home furnishings are in a slump right now primarily because fewer people are buying new homes, says Jeff Green, the president of Mill Valley, Calif.-based Jeff Green Partners, a retail consulting firm. Those who are staying put are paying off their mortgages, not upgrading their decor, he says.
After two years that have trimmed the retail field and chastened the remaining players, the most compelling questions concern what retail real estate will look like when it inevitably mounts a comeback. A preview suggests that by early in the next decade, retail real estate will look much different from the pre-recession model. Jeff Green, a California-based retail consultant, estimates that overall retail occupancy will settle at 80 to 85 percent of pre-recession levels by the end of 2010.
There are certain key factors that virtually all successful lifestyle center projects share that are positive prognostic indicators for long-term viability. While there is no magic formula and every project must be evaluated within the context of its individual market demographics, psychographics and competition, there are a number of important conceptual, design, development and leasing elements that successful lifestyle centers have in common.
What better time than this economically gloomy present to focus on the future? This is precisely what some owners, managers and retailers are challenging themselves to do. Technology, for example, promises to create new markets by making shoppers across the globe more informed and sophisticated, whether they live in industrialized or developing nations, in the country or the city, says consultant Jeff Green, head of Jeff Green Partners, Mill Valley, Calif.
They may well be the cheeriest cult ever, these well-heeled women with a preppy streak, many of whom live in affluent coastal towns. One cannot miss them for the bright pinks and greens, the floral patterns and sundresses they favor. They are schoolgirls and seniors; they are mothers who dress their daughters in Lilly frocks. They are Lilly Pulitzer customers. It is unclear what toll, if any, the recession will take on Lilly Pulitzer. Retail consultant Jeff Green, who heads Mill Valley, Calif.–based Jeff Green Partners, says its niche is too narrow for the times.
To some in the fashion industry, the words “plus size” have come to represent women’s clothing that is cookie-cutter, untrendy and decidedly ill-fitting. Still other industry insiders see the plus-size clothing market — which some consider starting at size 10 and others at size 14 — as the stepchild of the fashion industry. Notwithstanding relatively strong numbers, retail consultant Jeff Green of Jeff Green Partners in Mill Valley, Calif. says there’s still much room for improvement when it comes to serving the average U.S. woman, who weighs about 160 pounds, a number that has been going up in recent years.
If the economy won’t help retailers, maybe the bluebonnets will. With Easter coming three weeks later than it did last year, retailers are hoping that spring will put people in a shopping mood. “In context, the March numbers are pretty good,” said Jeff Green of Jeff Green Partners, a San Francisco-based retail feasibility consulting firm.
Consultant Jeff Green estimates that the nation’s retail space will shrink by 20% by the end of 2010.
Shopping center owners may start getting creative. Hicks said larger buildings could be divided to accommodate more than one business, or a nontraditional tenant could sign up.
Faced with falling property incomes, owners of retail real estate look for creative ways to slash spending. And given the current market environment and the demographics of the West Melbourne area, Green notes that whatever savings the developer will realize with these fees, the negative publicity the move will generate will outweigh them.
The housing market is stalled, so people aren’t moving into new homes that they want to furnish, and consumer spending is in a similar standstill, especially when it comes to big-ticket items like a dining room table or a couch, says Jeff Green, president of Mill Valley, Calif.-based Jeff Green Partners, a retail consulting firm.
With the uncertainty in the retail marketplace, all shopping center owners are keeping an eye on retail sales. In January, retail sales were up 1 percent, but many retailers are still reporting downward trending sales. To get a take on the market, Shopping Center Business interviewed Jeff Green, president of retail consultancy Jeff Green Partners, in early February just after January sales results were released.
The announcement in late January by Saks Fifth Avenue that it plans to cut 9 percent of its workforce as a result of slumping economic conditions could portend things to come for the luxury retail sector, warn analysts. Jeff Green, president of Jeff Green Partners, a Mill Valley, Calif.-based consulting firm, foresees closings for both Saks Fifth Avenue and Tiffany & Co. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see Saks close some stores; some of [its] smaller secondary market stores or smaller tourist market stores,” Green says.
Although by no means recession-proof, the gaming industry is still attracting crowds—and for retailers continuing to expand in the downturn, casino sites are in the cards. “Overnight stays will be what drives the retail and restaurants in casino environments,” said Jeff Green, president of real estate consulting firm Jeff Green Partners, Mill Valley, Calif., and a longtime retail consultant to the casino industry. “The retail will do better if the casino has a larger hotel component.”
For a noncompetitive activity, yoga is getting awfully cutthroat. This month, Bellevue-based Eddie Bauer became the latest clothing company to introduce a new yoga line for women, hoping to grab a slice of the estimated $5.7 billion that Americans spend annually on yoga classes and products. Green, who advised Lucy during a period of rapid store expansion from 2004 to 2008, said he suspects that Eddie Bauer is trying to appeal to “time-stressed women” who like to project an image of working out, whether or not they actually do.
Jeff Green appears on Fox Business to explore the Abercrombie vs. Gap rivalry .
In the world of shopping centers, strip malls and the cities that house them, a closed Ann Taylor here or an out-of-business Circuit City there might not matter much. But the timing and immensity of the current downturn in retail are dire, and not just for the employees who lose jobs, the company shareholders and the shoppers who no longer can buy from their favorite stores. “Small-market malls in the Rust Belt states and the Northeast will likely experience the brunt of these store closings,” says Jeff Green, a sales forecaster and strategic analyst for malls and retailers.
Major retailers reported dismal December sales Thursday, stepping up store closings and making new bankruptcy filings likely in coming months. Jeff Green, a sales forecaster and strategic analyst for malls and retailers, expects more closings for Macy’s, which acquired the former May Department Stores in 2006.
On the day after Christmas, President and CEO Jeff Green discusses holiday sales in an appearance on Fox Business News morning program Money for Breakfast
Jeff Green examines electronic retail report , including Best Buy’s surprising numbers, on Fox Business News morning program Money for Breakfast.
President and CEO Jeff Green weighs in on Cyber Monday sales in an appearance on Fox Business News morning program Money for Breakfast.
As U.S. retailers retrench, they are digging into familiar turf. For that small number of national tenants still able to expand during this downturn, almost all of the leasing action is taking place in the major market areas, site-selection experts say. “A big problem right now is getting anyone to make a decision on future expansion,” said retail consultant Jeff Green, head of Mill Valley, Calif.–based Jeff Green Partners.
President and CEO Jeff Green talks Black Friday with Alexis Glick on Fox Business News morning program Money for breakfast.
It will take a Christmas miracle to save retail this year. Store traffic has slowed to a crawl, as consumers shut their wallets, caught in the grip of tightened credit, rising unemployment and falling home values. “What worked in 2007 was affordable quality,” says Jeff Green, president and chief executive of Jeff Green Partners in Mill Valley, Calif. This year, consumers are fixated on price, and many are simply trading down to discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores, he said.
Jeff Green, president and CEO of Jeff Green Partners, also thought electronics would continue to be strong compared to apparel, furniture and toy retailers. “But because of the credit crunch,” Green now says, “people are going to be spending on needs, not wants, which is a real big issue as it relates to consumer electronics.”
Retailers’ sales may be suffering, but that doesn’t mean their landlords are sharing the pain. Jeff Green, a retail real estate consultant with Mill Valley-based Jeff Green Partners, said many retailers are pulling back to analyze their business operations. “So many retailers were growing so fast,” he said. “Their focus was on new stores and not on what their concept was supposed to be.”
Looking At Opportunities In “B” Malls
Shopping Center Business
CEO, Jeff Green Partners
Shopping Center Business
CEO, Jeff Green Partners
Chasing the Rooftops, 2.0
Chain Store Age
CEO, Jeff Green Partners
A Cure for Ailing Retail Property
CEO, Jeff Green Partners
Retail – Just What the Doctor Ordered
Shopping Center Business
CEO, Jeff Green Partners
The Lifestyle Format Still Has Legs
CEO, Jeff Green Partners
Lifestyle Centers – Another Look
CEO, Jeff Green Partners
Opinion: Choose Tenants Wisely
CEO, Jeff Green Partners
Lifestyle Centers Learn How to Fit In
Shopping Center Business
Giving Retailers and Developers the Green Light
by Anastasia Parsons
Western Real Estate Business
Volume 3, Issue 9 – May 2006
A Successful Marriage Is The Key To Successful Site Selection
CEO, Jeff Green Partners
Viewing Retail as a Journey, Not Simply a Destination; Today’s Consumer Makes Interesting Choices
CEO, Jeff Green Partners
Chasing Target and Wal-Mart. Why bother?
CEO, Jeff Green Partners
CEO, Jeff Green Partners
Redeveloping the Mall: What Can the Market Support?
by Bruce Katz & Jeff Green